Good or Grim, Chart Your Health Risk

June 10, 2008 -- Imagine having a crystal ball that could forecast your personalized risk for dying from a given disease in the next decade. If the glimpse into the future revealed an ominous outlook, would you change your health habits so you could live longer?

Researchers have developed simple risk charts to help the public "make sense of the health threats they face." The new charts estimate the risk of dying in the next 10 years from a number of given causes based on the top three factors that most influence mortality: age, gender, and smoking status.

The new charts are a substantial improvement over previous, data-heavy versions, and should offer much-needed perspective on patient health risks. The charts place the 10-year chance of dying from each disease side-by-side and provide separate estimates for current smokers, ex-smokers, and those who have never smoked, so you can quickly identify your individual risk.

"We hope that the availability of these simple charts will facilitate physician-patient discussion about disease risk and help people understand where to focus risk reduction efforts," study researcher Lisa Schwartz, MD, of the Department of Veterans Affairs Medical Center in White River Junction, Vt., says in a news release.

The charts outline the chance for dying from heart disease and lung cancer -- the most common causes of death -- and other diseases, such as AIDS and ovarian cancer.

Schwartz and colleagues used information from the 2004 National Center for Health Statistics Multiple Cause of Death Public Use File to create the new charts.

Health Risk Findings

• Men are more likely to die from all causes combined than women, regardless of age.
• Nonsmoking men are more likely to die from heart disease at any age than lung, colon, and prostate cancer combined.
• Nonsmoking women under 60 have similar death risks from heart disease and breast cancer. At age 60, heart disease poses the bigger risk for death.
• Female smokers over 40 are more likely to die from lung cancer or heart disease than breast cancer.

"The charts provide a compelling demonstration of the harms of cigarette smoking," the researchers write.

In an accompanying editorial, Michael Thun, MD, of the American Cancer Society writes that the new charts "bring us a step closer to the goal of communicating effectively about risk in the context of routine medical care."

When discussing health risks with your doctor, you should always ask two important questions: How big is my risk, and how does my risk compare with other risks?

However, some question whether people will actually notice the new risk charts if providers simply post them on office walls or hand them out as a patient leaves the exam room. Thun suggests incorporating them into highly visual, interactive programs that the patients could use to generate personalized feedback.